{"id":182,"date":"2012-09-18T22:42:54","date_gmt":"2012-09-18T14:42:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?p=182"},"modified":"2013-11-11T15:02:49","modified_gmt":"2013-11-11T07:02:49","slug":"how-is-the-sun-doing-these-days","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?p=182","title":{"rendered":"How is the Sun doing these days?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>My last post about the Sun is from August 2010. At that time it had become clear already that the present Solar Cycle 24 would be a weak one. We are now two years further, the maximum in solar activity is expected around September next year. Time for an update.<\/p>\n<p>Here is the most recent prediction, with data points until September<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"185\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?attachment_id=185\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept.gif\" data-orig-size=\"1024,768\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"ssn_predict_l_sept\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept-300x225.gif\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept.gif\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-185\" title=\"ssn_predict_l_sept\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept.gif\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept.gif 1024w, https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept-300x225.gif 300w, https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/ssn_predict_l_sept-400x300.gif 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The current prediction is a (smoothed) sunspot number maximum of about 76. That is low! We have to go back to Cycle 14 in 1906, to find a lower maximum value of 64.<\/p>\n<p>Here is a graph of the Solar Cycles over the past four centuries. With red crosses I have marked the 1906 maximum and the (predicted) 2013 maximum.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"187\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?attachment_id=187\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"837,536\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Maunder\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder-300x192.jpg\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder.jpg\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-187\" title=\"Maunder\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder.jpg\" width=\"837\" height=\"536\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder.jpg 837w, https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder-300x192.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/Maunder-468x300.jpg 468w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 837px) 100vw, 837px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>You will notice that the last half century we have had a &#8220;wave&#8221; of solar activity. Is that coming to an end now and will we enter a period of low solar activity? Nobody knows, as we do not understand very well the origin of the Solar Cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Both the Maunder minimum (17th century) and the Dalton minimum (~ 1800) had influence on the Earth climate. Severe winters in Europe as can be seen in paintings of the Dutch School, like this famous one by <small>Hendrick Avercamp<\/small> (1585-1634)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"189\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?attachment_id=189\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"600,370\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"dlb-henderick\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick-300x185.jpg\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick.jpg\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-189\" title=\"dlb-henderick\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick.jpg\" width=\"600\" height=\"370\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick.jpg 600w, https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick-300x185.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/09\/dlb-henderick-486x300.jpg 486w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Now we live in a period of global warming. There are strong indications that our carbon emission is at least partly responsible for this. But could there also be a contribution due to the high solar activity during the last fifty years? Those are sensitive questions..:-)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My last post about the Sun is from August 2010. At that time it had become clear already that the present Solar Cycle 24 would be a weak one. We are now two years further, the maximum in solar activity &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?p=182\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[8,7,42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-astronomy","category-science","category-sun"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2LqIR-2W","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=182"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4393,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/182\/revisions\/4393"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}