{"id":34321,"date":"2026-08-22T14:40:51","date_gmt":"2026-08-22T06:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?p=34321"},"modified":"2026-08-22T17:48:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-22T09:48:16","slug":"the-doomsday-clock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/?p=34321","title":{"rendered":"The Doomsday Clock"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On 16 July1945, the world entered the atomic age. The Manhattan Project<\/a> detonated successfully the Trinity test bomb<\/a> at a remote location in the USA state of New Mexico. The photo was taken from 16 km away and the bomb had an explosive power of 21-25 kilotons of TNT, thousands of times more than conventional bombs. See the appendix for more info about TNT.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Robert Oppenheimer<\/a>, the scientific director of the Manhattan Project, witnessed the detonation from the South Bunker, 9 km away, with many scientists and VIP’s. In a 1965 interview (video)<\/a> , he reminisced that moment. He said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We knew the world would not be the same. A few people laughed, a few people cried. Most people were silent. I remembered the line from the Hindu scripture, the Bhagavad-Gita; Vishnu is trying to persuade the Prince that he should do his duty, and to impress him, takes on his multi-armed form and says, ‘Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.’<\/strong><\/em>
I suppose we all thought that, one way or another.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The quote has become famous. Not sure if everybody understands it. In the Bhagavad Gita<\/a>, Arjuna (the Prince) is reluctant to fight a war with his cousins. Krishna tells him that it is his moral duty, and to convince him, he assumes the avatar of multi-armed Vishnu. He is the “I” in the quote. Oppenheimer sees himself as Arjuna.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A few weeks later, on 6 and 9 August, atomic bombs were dropped om Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing 95000 \u2013 150000 people instantly. Total estimated deaths: 150000 \u2013 246000 at the end of 1945 (burns, radiation sickness etc.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A few months later, members of the Manhattan Project created the organization Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/a>. It published a regular newsletter under the same name, to educate and warn the public and politicians about the dangers of this new atomic age, advocating that a world government should take control of everything related to atomic energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United Nations officially came into existence on 24 October 1945 and its first resolution was the formation of the United Nations Atomic Energy Commission<\/a> (UNAEC)\u00a0on 24 January 1946. A promising start, but soon the tensions between the USA and the Soviet Union escalated and in 1947 the Cold War started.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was in that year that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists decided to publish a bi-monthly magazine instead of a newsletter. On the front cover of the first issue, the Doomsday Clock was introduced to convey the urgent nuclear dangers facing humanity: only a few minutes to midnight. That the clock showed 7 minutes to midnight was just because the design then looked prettier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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At first, the clock was fixed at seven minutes to midnight, but when the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb in 1949, ending the monopoly of the USA and increasing the risk of a nuclear conflict, it was decided to move the minute hand 4 minutes closer to midnight. When in 1953 both the USA and the Soviet Union tested the H-bomb, the minute hand was advanced one more minute. Sometimes there was positive news: in 1963, a treaty was signed to limit nuclear bomb testing; therefore, the minute hand was moved 12 minutes away from midnight. In the image below, a few more years are shown. In 1991, at the end of the Cold War, the minute hand was moved 17 minutes away from midnight. This year, 2026, it has never been so close to midnight, only 85 seconds away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In the graph below, the time of the Doomsday Clock is shown. The vertical axis gives the time in minutes to midnight. Each year in January, a team of experts evaluates the global situation and decides whether to move the minute hand or not. In 1974, India tests its atomic bomb (-2 m), and in 1998, both India and Pakistan test nuclear weapons (- 5 m). Details about the argumentation of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists can be found on this very detailed website, The Clock Shifts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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In the almost 80 years of its existence, the Doomsday Clock has been adjusted 25 times. Until 2007, the decision was based on atomic\/nuclear arguments, such as proliferation, test bans, nuclear treaties, etc. That changed after 2007, when the effects of climate change were also considered. Later, “disruptive” technologies were added, such as AI-warfare. In my opinion, a regrettable decision, which has seriously undermined the (symbolic) value of the Doomsday Clock. Nuclear War and Climate Change belong to different categories of existential anger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are now nine countries with nuclear weapons. The USA, Russia, China, France, the UK, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. Together, they possess almost 4000 active warheads. Several world leaders have publicly said that using nuclear weapons was an option. We are far away from a world government, as envisaged by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1945. There is a real risk that humanity will destroy itself in the near future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Appendix about (explosive) energy<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The explosive energy of (atomic) bombs is often expressed in terms of the amount of TNT that would have the same effect. TNT (trinitrotoluene) is an explosive material, similar to dynamite. Modern conventional aircraft bombs contain 0.1 to 1.1 ton of TNT, depending on their size. The explosive energy of the Trinity test bomb (21000-25000 tons of TNT) is many thousand times stronger. The Hiroshima bomb (“Little Boy”) had a power equal to about 15000 tons (15 kilotons) of TNT, and the Nagasaki bomb (“Fat Man”) equaled about 21000 to 22000 tons (21\u201322 kilotons) of TNT. In the arms race during the Cold War between America and Russia, much stronger bombs have been developed and tested. In 1954 the USA tested its first H-bomb, with an explosive power of 15 Megaton of TNT, thousand times stronger than the Hiroshima bomb!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 16 July1945, the world entered the atomic age. The Manhattan Project detonated successfully the Trinity test bomb at a remote location in the USA state of New Mexico. The photo was taken from 16 km away and the bomb … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34334,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1947-First-Magazine-Cover-7-Minutes-Martyl-Langsdorf_0-750x1024-1.jpg","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2LqIR-8Vz","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34321"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34352,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34321\/revisions\/34352"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/34334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stuif.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}